Crtside Predictions vs. Vegas

In a battle of Crtside vs. some bookie likely named Don Ralphie Giamatti, the Vegas odds on the NBA season are out. I thought it’d be interesting to find out how my preseason predictions stacked up against the pros aka Las Vegas odds. If I were a betting man (which I’m not), I’d probably bet with the people that do this in order to take your money. But, like every great man who once owned a three bedroom house and now lives in a hostel, I think I’m smarter than Vegas.

 

 Crtside Rank Team Wins Losses Vegas Diff Vegas Rank Diff
1 Heat 61 21 61 0 1 0
2 Thunder 63 19 59.5 3.5 3 -1
3 Lakers 60 22 59.5 0.5 2 1
4 Spurs 57 25 53.5 3.5 4 0
5 Celtics 53 29 50.5 2.5 5 0
6 Clippers 55 27 49.5 5.5 7 -1
7 Nuggets 53 29 48.5 4.5 8 -1
8 Grizzlies 51 31 47.5 3.5 10 -2
9 Sixers 50 32 46.5 3.5 11 -2
10 Pacers 50 32 50.5 -0.5 6 4
11 Nets 49 33 44.5 4.5 14 -3
12 Bulls 48 34 47.5 0.5 9 3
13 Timberwolves 47 35 39.5 7.5 17 -4
14 Knicks 46 36 45.5 0.5 12 2
15 Jazz 45 37 42.5 2.5 16 -1
16 Hawks 41 41 42.5 -1.5 15 1
17 Mavs 42 40 44.5 -2.5 13 4
18 Bucks 37 45 35.5 1.5 18 0
19 Blazers 37 45 35.5 1.5 19 0
20 Warriors 33 49 34.5 -1.5 20 0
21 Hornets 32 50 24.5 7.5 28 -7
22 Cavs 29 53 31.5 -2.5 22 0
23 Wizards 29 53 31.5 -2.5 25 -2
24 Suns 28 54 33.5 -5.5 21 3
25 Raptors 27 55 31.5 -4.5 24 1
26 Rockets 25 57 30.5 -5.5 26 0
27 Kings 23 59 30.5 -7.5 27 0
28 Magic 23 59 23.5 -0.5 29 -1
29 Pistons 20 62 31.5 -11.5 23 6
30 Bobcats 16 66 22.5 -6.5 30 0

You can see there are some discrepancies between what I think and what the people who do this professionally think. First of all, as a general rule, I think the top third of the league is going to be better and the bottom third is going to be worse. Looking down the list, the first team I strongly disagree with Vegas is the Timberwolves. Even with Love missing some games in addition to Rubio, I still think this team is better than 39.5 wins. I also strongly disagree with the Hornets. Vegas bookies have them as the 3rd worst team in the league and I simply don’t see it. I also see the Rockets, Kings, Pistons, and Bobcats as significantly worse than they do. After watching Andre Drummond excel all preseason, I’m not sure how wild I am about making that pick. I do think the Rockets and Bobcats are bad and the Kings, although talented, have bad ownership and bad chemistry.

What are your thoughts? Leave a comment below…